about Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks (BN) are probabilistic graphical models that can capture both quantitative and qualitative data to structure complex management problems (Ames et al., 2005). The steps for the BN implementation include:

Some of the major advantages of Bayesian networks are:

  • Integrating different types of information such as expert judgement, literature review and empirical data
  • Allowing the model to be progressively improved, by easily updating all its components considering new advances in the state-of-the-art of the topic or new data
  • Discussion and interaction are facilitated using a graphical output, called a conceptual model.

Alnus decline net

The final task of this project includes the construction of a Bayesian Network – referred as “Alnus Decline net (ADnet)” – a management tool that will integrate all the information gathered during field surveys and greenhouse experiments, and that of bibliography and experts, and deliver a model to predict alder vulnerability to Phytophtora infection across hydrographic networks.

The methodology used to obtain the project’s data can be consulted in ACTIVITIES.